January 2026 Surprise Real Estate and Rental Market Update

Surprise continues to shift toward a more balanced — and in some segments, buyer-leaning — market as we move into 2026. Inventory is building, homes are taking longer to sell, and pricing pressure remains modestly negative year over year.

Here’s what January is telling us:


🏡 Sales Market – January 2026

  • Active Listings: 1,436 (+15.4% YoY)
  • Median Sold Price per SF: $224.03 (-7.4% YoY)
  • Average Days on Market: 69 days (+19% YoY)
  • 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.11%

What It Means

Inventory has expanded significantly compared to last year. With more than 1,400 homes on the market and nearly 70 days to sell, buyers have time and leverage.

Price per square foot remains relatively stable month-to-month (essentially flat from December), but is still down year over year — showing gradual downward pressure rather than sharp correction.

For sellers:

  • Pricing precision matters.
  • Condition and presentation matter more than ever.
  • Overpricing will cost you time.

For buyers:

  • You have options.
  • Negotiation power is improving.
  • Concessions are increasingly common.

🏘 Rental Market – January 2026

  • Active Rental Listings: 219 (+23.7% YoY)
  • Median Rented Price per SF: $1.07 (-7.8% YoY)
  • Median Days on Market: 51 days (+8.5% YoY)

What It Means

Rental inventory is also elevated compared to last year. Even though active listings dipped slightly from December, they remain significantly higher year over year.

Rents are softening modestly, and properties are taking longer to lease. A 51-day median leasing timeline tells us renters have more choices — and landlords must compete.

For landlords:

  • Pricing aggressively at market matters.
  • Marketing quality and response speed are critical.
  • Longer vacancy timelines must be factored into underwriting.

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