July 2026
The Phoenix Metro housing market told two very different stories in July.
The sales market remains soft as higher mortgage rates continue to limit buyer affordability. Meanwhile, the rental market is tightening quickly, with fewer available homes, faster leasing, and rents returning to modest year-over-year growth.
The result: buying remains difficult, while demand for rental homes continues to strengthen across Maricopa and Pinal Counties.
Sales Market Highlights
- Active Listings: 20,389 — down 2.4% year over year
- Median Sold Price: $250.40 per SF — down 0.8%
- Average Days on Market: 61 days — down 1.6%
- 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.79%
Sales inventory continued to decline in July, but fewer listings have not translated into higher prices.
The bigger issue remains affordability.
Mortgage rates increased from 6.49% in June to 6.79% in July. Even with home prices slightly below last year, higher borrowing costs continue to keep many buyers on the sidelines.
Homes are still selling at roughly the same pace as last year, which suggests the market is soft rather than distressed. Buyers have negotiating leverage, while sellers need to be realistic about pricing.
This continues the stabilization trend we saw in our June 2026 Phoenix Metro market update, but July’s higher mortgage rates created another headwind for buyers.
Rental Market Highlights
- Active Rental Listings: 4,905 — down 17.4% year over year
- Median Rent: $1.38 per SF — up 0.7%
- Median Days on Market: 28 days — down 15.2%
The rental side of the market looks considerably stronger.
Available rental inventory has fallen nearly 17% from last year, creating significantly less competition among landlords.
At the same time, rents have moved back into positive territory and homes are leasing much faster.
That combination suggests tenant demand is absorbing available rental inventory quickly.
It does not mean landlords can aggressively raise rents everywhere. Phoenix remains an extremely local market, and rental conditions vary dramatically between cities.
But at the metro level, the direction is clear:
Rental supply is tightening and leasing demand is improving.
Why Are Sales and Rentals Moving in Different Directions?
Mortgage rates may be part of the answer.
A household that might normally purchase a home may choose—or be forced—to continue renting when borrowing costs make the monthly payment unattractive.
That creates an unusual environment where weaker homebuyer demand can coexist with stronger rental demand.
Phoenix also continues to add residents. As we recently covered, Phoenix population growth has slowed but continues to outperform most major U.S. metros. Continued population growth creates long-term demand for both ownership and rental housing.
Affordability remains the bigger challenge. Arizona is already pursuing policies designed to reduce housing costs, including HB 2999 and its new approach to financing housing infrastructure.
Key Takeaways
- The sales market remains soft, but there are few signs of serious distress.
- Falling sales inventory has not been enough to push home prices higher.
- Mortgage rates at 6.79% remain the biggest obstacle for buyers.
- Rental inventory is tightening much faster than sales inventory.
- Rental homes are leasing 15% faster than they were last year.
- Rent growth has turned slightly positive after months of softness.
- The gap between the for-sale and rental markets is becoming increasingly important for homeowners and investors.
Overall Outlook
The Phoenix Metro market remains relatively balanced, but the sales and rental sides are moving in different directions.
For buyers, higher mortgage rates continue to create affordability challenges, but softer pricing and a less competitive sales environment provide negotiating opportunities.
For sellers, the market remains functional, but pricing correctly is critical. Homeowners who cannot achieve the sale price they need may want to consider renting rather than continuing to chase the market downward.
For landlords and investors, July is encouraging. Rental inventory is falling, homes are leasing faster, and rent growth is beginning to stabilize.
The biggest story heading into the second half of 2026 may not be whether Phoenix home prices rise or fall.
It may be what happens to the growing number of households that decide not to buy at all.
For many of them, the alternative is renting.
June 2026
The Phoenix Metro housing market continued to stabilize in June as inventory declined, home prices held steady, and the rental market tightened. Here are the highlights from Maricopa and Pinal Counties.
Sales Market Highlights
- Active Listings: 21,155 (5.7% decrease YoY)
- Median Sold Price: $253.97 per SF (0.4% increase YoY)
- Average Days on Market: 58 days (1.8% increase YoY)
- 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.49%
Inventory has continued to decline from its spring peak, giving sellers slightly more leverage while still providing buyers with more choices than they had a few years ago. Home prices remain remarkably stable despite elevated mortgage rates.
Rental Market Highlights
- Active Rental Listings: 4,920 (12.1% decrease YoY)
- Median Rent: $1.35 per SF (2.2% decrease YoY)
- Median Days on Market: 28 days (9.7% decrease YoY)
Rental inventory remains significantly lower than last year, and homes are leasing much faster. While rents have softened slightly compared to 2025, tenant demand remains healthy for well-priced, well-maintained properties.
Key Takeaways
- 📉 Home inventory declined 5.7% year over year, continuing the trend toward a more balanced market.
- 📈 Home values remained stable with a 0.4% annual increase in median sold price per square foot.
- 🏡 Homes averaged 58 days on market, showing only a slight increase from last year.
- 💰 Mortgage rates remained relatively steady at 6.49%.
- 🔑 Rental inventory fell 12.1% year over year, creating less competition among landlords.
- ⚡ Rental homes leased in just 28 days, nearly 10% faster than a year ago.
Overall Outlook
The Phoenix Metro market remains healthy and balanced heading into the second half of 2026. Buyers continue to benefit from improved inventory levels, sellers are seeing stable home values, and landlords are enjoying stronger leasing activity as rental inventory tightens. While elevated mortgage rates continue to influence affordability, the market has shown remarkable resilience, making Phoenix one of the more stable real estate markets in the country.
May 2026
Sales Market
Active Listings: 21,908 (-7.2% YoY)
→ Inventory continues to tighten across the metro area, marking one of the largest year-over-year declines we’ve seen since inventory peaked in 2025.
Median Sold $/SF: $253.94 (-1.0% YoY)
→ Home prices remain slightly below last year, but the pace of decline continues to moderate, suggesting pricing is stabilizing.
Average Days on Market: 56 (+5.7% YoY)
→ Homes are taking slightly longer to sell than last year, though market timing remains healthy and relatively balanced.
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.52%
→ Rates moved higher from April and remain one of the primary headwinds for buyer affordability and demand.
Rental Market
Active Listings: 4,604 (-11.2% YoY)
→ Rental inventory continues to tighten significantly, reflecting a major shift from the oversupplied rental conditions experienced throughout much of 2025.
Median Rented $/SF: $1.35 (-1.5% YoY)
→ Rental pricing remains slightly below last year, though rents have held remarkably stable despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
Median Days on Market: 33 (+6.5% YoY)
→ Rentals are taking slightly longer to lease than last year, suggesting renters remain price-conscious despite reduced inventory.
Key Takeaways
- Sales inventory continues to contract year-over-year
- Home prices are stabilizing and nearing flat year-over-year performance
- Higher mortgage rates remain the biggest challenge for buyers
- Rental inventory continues to tighten significantly
- Rental pricing remains relatively stable despite lower supply
- The market is becoming more balanced as excess inventory from 2025 is absorbed
Overall
The Phoenix Metro housing market continues its gradual transition toward stabilization. Inventory on both the sales and rental sides has declined substantially from last year’s elevated levels, creating healthier supply conditions. While mortgage rates remain a challenge and continue to limit affordability, home prices have largely stabilized and rental rates have remained resilient.
The biggest story in May is the continued reduction in available inventory. What was once a rapidly expanding supply environment throughout 2025 has shifted into a tightening market across much of Maricopa and Pinal Counties. While this doesn’t necessarily signal a return to the ultra-competitive markets of previous years, it does suggest the Phoenix Metro market is moving toward a more balanced environment where neither buyers nor sellers hold a significant advantage.