Phoenix Population Growth Is Slowing, But Still Beating Most Major U.S. Metros

Phoenix is still growing faster than most of the country, even if the pace cooled a bit in 2025.

Key takeaways:

  • The Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro added 59,065 residents in 2025.
  • Total metro population reached 5,228,938.
  • Phoenix posted 1.14% population growth in 2025.
  • That was down from 1.62% the year before.
  • Even with the slowdown, Phoenix still had the fourth-highest raw population gain in the country.
  • Only Dallas and Houston posted faster growth rates among larger metros with bigger populations than Phoenix.
  • Phoenix remains the 10th most populous metro in the U.S.

What changed?

  • The biggest reason for slower growth was a sharp drop in international migration.
  • International migration into Phoenix fell by more than 50% compared to 2024.
  • Even so, international migration still exceeded domestic migration in 2025.
  • Domestic migration into the Valley actually increased slightly.

Other growth drivers:

  • Births continued to outpace deaths in the metro.
  • Since 2020, the Valley has added 377,643 residents.
  • That works out to 7.25% cumulative population growth over five years.

Why this matters for Arizona real estate investors:

  • Population growth is still a long-term tailwind for housing demand in the Valley.
  • More people means continued pressure on both the for-sale and rental markets.
  • Even if growth is cooling, Phoenix is still outperforming much of the country.
  • Investors should pay attention to where future demand shows up most: workforce housing, single-family rentals, and suburban growth corridors.

Investor angle:

  • Slower growth is not the same as no growth.
  • Phoenix is still attracting people at a pace most metros would love to have.
  • In a market like Maricopa or Pinal County, sustained population growth continues to support long-term housing demand.
  • The real question is whether housing supply can keep up without more barriers to development.

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